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In its report, entitled “Forecast: Devices by Operating System and User Type, Worldwide, 2010-2017, 1Q13 Update”, Gartner predicts the desktop and notebook PC market will decline by 7.6 per cent in 2013, a trend that will continue yearly as part of a long-term shift in user preferences.
The company said tablets now provide for all of a user’s personal computing needs.
“While there will be some individuals who retain both a personal PC and a tablet, especially those who use either or both for work and play, most will be satisfied with the experience they get from a tablet as their main computing device,” said Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner.
“As consumers shift their time away from their PC to tablets and smartphones, they will no longer see their PC as a device that they need to replace on a regular basis.”
The tablet market, on the other hand, will rocket in 2013 and thereafter, with Gartner predicting worldwide shipments to total 197 million units this year, up 69.8 per cent on 2012 figures.
The Android operating system has already stolen the market dominant position, and will continue to expand its lead over rivals over the coming years, to the extent that Gartner predicts Android’s market share will be thrice that of nearest competitors Microsoft and Apple.
The struggle for second place will see www.Microsoft’s Windows and Apple’s iOS/MacOS battle against each other, remaining largely equal over the coming years.
The predictions as a whole lead to the conclusion that once-dominant Microsoft will struggle over the next three to four years, unless it makes headway in the tablet and smartphone market.
The lowering cost of smartphone and tablet offerings also serves to fuel adoption in emerging markets - such as Africa - further exacerbating the negative outlook for Microsoft as the research suggests smartphone users in emerging markets who are looking to move on to a computing device are more likely to transition to a tablet that a PC.
“Growth in the tablet segment will not be limited to mature markets alone. Users in emerging markets who are looking for a companion to their mobile phone will increasingly choose a tablet as their first computing device and not a PC,” predicted Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner.
