CC image courtesy of Ridble on Flickr
Mobile expert Tomi Ahonen has projected that by summer of 2019 the cost of a smartphone such as an iPhone will be as low as US$10, including distribution, marketing and profit.
Ahonen told the Mobile West Africa 2014 conference in Lagos, Nigeria, the prices of Apple, Nokia, Samsung and BlackBerry devices had been falling for years and would continue to do so.
“In summer of 2010, the unsubsidised price of US$600 gave you touchscreen, 3G, Wi-Fi, GPS, 8mp and flash. In winter 2011, same phone cost US$300. It became US$150 in the summer of 2013. It would be US$75 in the winter of 2014, US$38 in the summer of 2016, US$19 in the winter of 2017 and by the summer of 2019, cost of the same specs of what was considered a superphone in 2010 would be US$10,” Ahonen said.
He said the aggregate value of all industries going mobile as at 2013 was US$6 trillion, with these industries including banking, telecoms, advertising, market research, social media, gaming, music, broadcast, print, mapping and insurance. Currently, he said the migration is 25 per cent complete and stands at US$1.5 trillion.
Ahonen said these migrations are not surprising since mobile has the unique benefits of being the first personal mass medium, permanently connected and always carried, with built-in payment channels and the most accurate audience information.
On the debate over the impacts of over-the-top (OTT) services over SMS, he said the migration of person-to-person SMS message volume to OTT messages is not killing SMS. He said this is supported by 2013 figures which showed an increase in the number of SMS messages sent than in previous years, although about three times more OTT messages were sent within the same period.
“What is happening is that OTT is growing in numbers that ought to be accrued to SMS,” Ahonen said.
