The first working paper of the Global Commission on Internet Governance has predicted there will not be a single overarching cyberspace regime in the near future.
It said instead like-minded states cooperating together is likely to emerge as the primary way to avoid destabilisation in cyberspace.
In his assessment of the cyber system, Joseph S Nye Jr, professor and former dean of the Kennedy School at Harvard University, said a variety of issues, such as crime and privacy, are developing at different rates, which is causing compliance, cooperation and confidence-building measures to evolve unevenly.
“Governments want to protect the internet so their societies can continue to benefit from it, but at the same time, they also want to protect their societies from what might come through the internet,” he said.
“Governments and non-state actors cooperate and compete for power in this complex arena. Given the youth of the issue and the volatility of the technology, there are many potential paths along which cyber norms may evolve.”
He said the international relations model of regime theory, given the insight it offers on the full complexity of systems, is the best approach to understanding how normative structures will develop in cyberspace.
“Predicting the future of the normative structures that will govern the various issues of cyberspace is impossible because of the newness and volatility of the technology, the rapid changes in economic and political interests, and the social and generational cognitive evolution that is affecting how state and non-state actors understand and define their interests,” said Nye.
Nye is one of 29 members of the Global Commission on Internet Governance, a two-year initiative launched in January 2014 by the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) and Chatham House.
